I'm Gavin Mai. I love sharing what I'm learning. I'm currently based in San Juan, PR 🇵🇷
In a past life, I built models for hybrid basket-backed stablecoins, architected payment rail APIs, and developed decentralized identity solutions. Nowadays, I'm channeling my passion for technology and innovation into advising, writing, and investing in startups.
I hold a degree in Symbolic Systems from Stanford University. Outside of work, my interests include road biking, writing, bio-hacking, sustainability, consciousness research / qualia, and artificial intelligence.
In a past life, I built models for hybrid basket-backed stablecoins, architected payment rail APIs, and developed decentralized identity solutions. Nowadays, I'm channeling my passion for technology and innovation into advising, writing, and investing in startups.
I hold a degree in Symbolic Systems from Stanford University. Outside of work, my interests include road biking, writing, bio-hacking, sustainability, consciousness research / qualia, and artificial intelligence.
Latest Writings
Posted 9 days ago
How to Build a Solar Backup System for Under $5,000
In 1752, Benjamin Franklin flew his famous kite in a thunderstorm, helping unlock the mysteries of electricity. Nearly 130 years later, Thomas Edison would illuminate the world with the first practical light bulb. Today, we rarely pause to marvel at these innovations - flipping a switch for light or plugging in a laptop has become second nature. Yet our modern comforts rest entirely on a complex and sometimes fragile power grid that we take for granted. Artistic Rendition of Ben Franklin's Kite Experiment Living in Puerto Rico, I've experienced firsthand how precious reliable electricity truly is. While the local power grid generally works well, occasional outages from storms or maintenance are stark reminders of how dependent we are on this invisible force for everything from air conditioning and refrigeration to internet connectivity and medical devices. Today, I want to share how I was able to build a home backup system (DIY) with no electrical engineering background for less than $5000, and how you can too. In 2017, Hurricane Maria - a devastating Category 5 storm with sustained winds over 155 mph - exposed just how fragile our power infrastructure really is. The entire island lost power, and for many communities, electricity wasn't restored for over 6 months. This wasn't just an inconvenience - it was a humanitarian crisis that affected everything from food storage to medical care. Hurricane Maria Weather Map The vulnerability stems from decades of neglected infrastructure. Our power grid is a patchwork of aging components, with many critical elements like transformers and transmission lines operating well beyond their intended lifespan. This fragility is compounded by geography - most of our power generation happens in the south, while the majority of the population lives in the north, requiring an extension transmission network across mountainous terrain. Puerto Rico electricity rates compared to USA (source) The cost of this inefficient system falls directly on residents. Puerto Ricans pay between $0.27 - $0.35 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for electricity - nearly triple the US mainland average of $0.12/kWh. This high cost is driven by three main factors: Constant infrastructure repairs and maintenance Heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which power 95% of our grid (compared to 78% on the mainland) The Jones Act's shipping restrictions, which force Puerto Rico to use expensive U.S.-flagged vessels for fuel transport between American ports, even when cheaper international options are available. This century-old maritime law adds significant costs to nearly every shipment of fuel and equipment reaching the island Puerto Rico's power grid showing 230kV and 115kV transmission lines. Most power generation is in the south while population centers are in the north, creating infrastructure challenges. Map: Brandon Palacio (source) Even today, five years after Maria, regular outages remain a fact of life. While most last less than 24 hours, multi-day blackouts still occur several times a year, especially during hurricane seasons. These outages aren't merely inconvenient. They can be life-threatening for vulnerable residents. Many locals rely of electricity for critical medical equipment like oxygen concentrations, dialysis machines, or refrigerated medications. For them, a reliable power supply isn't a luxury-it's a necessity. The reality drove me to create this guide with two primary objectives: Document how I built a reliable, cost-effective backup power system to improve my own resilience Provide a practical blueprint for others to achieve energy independence, regardless of their technical background While I don't have formal electrical engineering training (my background is in computer science), I've done extensive research to understand the fundamentals of power systems and hope to pass those learnings to you. DISCLAIMER: This guide is for informational purposes only. Please consult with a qualified/licensed electrician in your local area before attempting any electrical work. Proceed at your own risk. Improper installation can result in serious injury or death. Every home solar backup system requires these core components: Solar Panels Copper Wire (various gauges and lengths) Inverter Transfer Switch(es) Battery Fuses While this may seem daunting if you're new to electrical systems, the basic concept is straightforward: This is a basic rendering of the essentials of any solar backup battery system. In practice, you need to add more components between systems to ensure safety, which we will cover later. Solar panels capture sunlight and convert it to direct current (DC) electricity Copper wiring creates the electrical pathways between components - from panels to inverter to battery The inverter transforms direct current (DC) into alternating current (AC) that powers your home Transfer switches integrate your solar power with your home's electrical panel Batteries store energy for use when sunlight isn't available A charge controller optimizes the solar DC voltage to efficiently charge your batteries Fuses provide critical protection against electrical surges and faults Bus Bars - These efficiently connect multiple wires together. While not required, they can reduce copper wire usage, which is increasingly expensive. Battery Monitor - Some batteries include built-in displays, but a separate monitor may be needed to track charge levels Wire Conduits - These improve aesthetics by neatly concealing wiring Battery Disconnect Switch - Allows for easy battery isolation without manually removing connections Battery monitor display showing voltage, current, and charge status Bus bar for efficiently connecting multiple wires together Wire conduit for neatly organizing and protecting cables Battery disconnect switch for safely isolating the battery system Though not essential, these additions significantly enhance system usability and maintenance while remaining relatively affordable. Let's start with the basics: how much power does your home actually need? The average US household uses about 30 kilowatt-hours (kWh) each day, but this can vary quite a bit depending on your situation. Your home likely falls into one of these categories: Low Usage (10-20 kWh/day) Perfect for small homes or apartments You probably use AC sparingly Your appliances are energy-efficient Medium Usage (20-35 kWh/day) Typical for an average single-family home You use AC/heating moderately throughout the day High Usage (35+ kWh/day) Common for larger homes You run AC/heating frequently You have extra power draws like pool pumps or multiple refrigerators Let's say you want to generate 10KWH of electricity per day – enough to run your essential appliances. Here's how to figure out what you need: First, count your daily sun hours (let's use 7 hours of good sunlight) Then, calculate your hourly needs: 10KWH ÷ 7 hours = 1.43KW per hour Finally, add some extra capacity for cloudy days Solar panels typically come in sizes from 200W to 500W. When shopping for panels, you'll want to consider: How much space you have for installation Your budget Local weather conditions Here's a money-saving tip: look at the cost per watt when comparing panels: Used panels cost around $0.20/watt (I found 250W panels for $50 each) New panels run $0.60-$0.80/watt Explanation on how solar panels work While used panels might be 10-15% less efficient, they can save you a lot of money. I recommend checking out Eco Direct for new panels, but there are many other options online. Let's look at a real example: To get that 1.43 KW/hour we calculated earlier, you could use: Eight 250W panels (like I did), or Four 500W bifacial panels if you prefer newer technology Bifacial panels are more expensive, but provide higher power density than traditional panels Once you've got your solar panels figured out, you'll need batteries to store that energy. For a system generating 10KWH daily, you'll want at least that much storage capacity – I'd recommend 10-12.5KWH to be safe. You have several battery options to consider: Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePo4) - My top recommendation Lead Acid AGM (Absorbed Glass Mat) Gel Batteries Battery Type Pros Cons Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePo4) • Longest lifespan (10-15 years)• Deep discharge capable (80-90%)• Lightweight• No maintenance required• Fast charging • Higher upfront cost• Special shipping requirements• Temperature sensitive• Requires BMS Lead Acid • Lowest upfront cost• Widely available• Simple technology• Easy to ship • Short lifespan (3-5 years)• Limited depth of discharge (50%)• Heavy• Requires maintenance• Slow charging AGM • Maintenance-free• Good shock/vibration resistance• No spill risk• Moderate lifespan (4-7 years) • Higher cost than flooded lead-acid• Limited depth of discharge (50%)• Temperature sensitive• Heavy Gel • Deep cycle capable• No spill risk• Good for extreme temperatures• Low maintenance • Expensive• Very sensitive to overcharging• Slow charging required• Special charging profile needed I prefer Lithium Iron Phosphate because they handle deep discharges better and last significantly longer. Just keep in mind that shipping these batteries requires special handling – you can't just pop them in the mail through USPS or UPS without proper documentation. If you're in Hawaii or Puerto Rico like me, you'll need freight shipping((There are many freight shipping companies that service Puerto Rico. I personally went with Crowley Logistics - https://crowley.com. They have a simple system for creating an order via email and then giving you a booking number, where you can send heavy or hazardous material like LiFePo4 batteries to an address in Jacksonville, with auto forwarding to the port of San Juan)). When storing multiple LiFePo4 batteries, proper organization is crucial for both safety and maintenance. I use a heavy-duty shelving unit rated for 250 pounds per shelf, which easily handles two 12V 200AH batteries per level (each battery weighs about 48 pounds). A sturdy shelving system keeps batteries organized and easily accessible for maintenance Key considerations for battery storage: Keep batteries elevated off the ground to prevent moisture damage Ensure proper ventilation around each battery Allow enough space for battery maintenance and terminal access Use sturdy, non-conductive shelving that can handle the weight Keep batteries at room temperature when possible Here's something crucial: for any system around 10KWH or larger, you'll want to use a 48V setup. Here's why: Remember the formula: Watts = Amps × Volts. Higher voltage means you need fewer amps to deliver the same power. This is really important because high amperage can make wires hot – sometimes dangerously hot. https://www.youtube.com/embed/FVwver30uE8 A 48V system can safely handle about 100A with 2-gauge wire, making it ideal for home backup systems. In contrast, smaller 12V or 24V systems require dangerously high amperage to deliver the same power - for example, a 4800W load would need 400A at 12V versus just 100A at 48V. When selecting wire gauge, it's always safer to go bigger (lower gauge number) than necessary. While thicker copper wire costs more upfront, it provides better safety margins and lower resistance. Using wire that's too thin creates a serious fire hazard due to heat buildup from resistance. Some key guidelines: 2 AWG wire can handle ~100A at 48V 4 AWG wire can handle ~70A at 48V 6 AWG wire can handle ~55A at 48V If cost constraints prevent using appropriately thick wire, you can increase system voltage to reduce amperage. However, remember that any voltage conversion (like 96V to 48V through a charge controller) will increase amperage on the output side, requiring appropriate wire gauge for that section. This chart shows how many amps different wire gauges can safely handle. Always check this when planning your system! Here is a chart showing optimal wire gauge as a function of the expected amperage and length of wire. One of the most important skills for building a solar system is proper wire crimping. Poor connections can lead to voltage drops, heat buildup, or even fires. Here's what you need to know: Example of a properly crimped connection vs a poor connection Essential crimping tips: Always use the correct size lug for your wire gauge Strip the exact amount of wire insulation needed (not too much, not too little) Use a ratcheting crimper that won't release until proper pressure is applied Make two crimps per connection for extra security Gently tug test each connection Use heat shrink tubing to protect connections For this build, I recommend either: AMZCNC Hydraulic Crimper ($45) - Great for larger gauge wires (12-2/0 AWG), uses hydraulic pressure for consistent crimps iCrimp Battery Cable Tool ($34) - More compact option for 8-1/0 AWG, includes a wire cutter I personally use the AMZCNC model since it handles the full range of wire sizes needed for solar installations. The hydraulic action makes crimping large gauge wires much easier on your hands. https://www.youtube.com/embed/vaIzmZ2y5wo Understanding how to properly wire your components is critical for both safety and efficiency. Let's break down the key connections and considerations: To achieve our target 48V system voltage, we need to properly configure our 12V batteries: First, balance batteries by connecting them in parallel Then, arrange in series to reach 48V (4 x 12V batteries) Finally, connect multiple 48V groups in parallel to increase capacity Battery wiring diagram showing parallel balancing and series configuration Important: Always balance batteries in parallel first to equalize voltages. This maximizes efficiency and battery life by ensuring all cells start at the same voltage level. Here is a video that walks you through balancing your batteries. It's as simple as connecting the batteries in parallel. Make sure positive terminals are connected only to positive, and negative terminals only to negative. https://www.youtube.com/embed/oOEqnCrxPYg If you cross wires, you run the risk of shorting a battery, which is dangerous. https://www.youtube.com/embed/PqyUtQv1WoQ Expanding Capacity: To increase your battery bank capacity, you can add multiple 48V battery sets in parallel - for example, if using 12V batteries, first balance and connect groups of 4 batteries in series to create 48V, then connect multiple 48V sets in parallel to expand capacity. Here's the recommended connection sequence from batteries to inverter: Battery bank → Battery disconnect switch (master control) Disconnect switch → Class T fuse (system protection) Fuse → Bus bars (power distribution hub) Bus bars → Various components: MPPT charge controller Battery monitor Inverter Basic wiring diagram showing major component connections For maximum MPPT efficiency, configure your panels to achieve higher voltage: Target voltage should be well above battery voltage (48V) Higher voltage = better MPPT efficiency Stay within charge controller limits (250V max in my case) Use this calculator to determine optimal panel configuration for your location: Victron SmartSolar MPPT (250V/100A) charge controller with Bluetooth monitoring capabilities I chose the Victron SmartSolar 250V/100A MPPT controller for several reasons: High voltage capacity (250V) allows flexible panel configuration Quality brand with excellent reliability Built-in Bluetooth monitoring Efficient MPPT algorithms While Victron is premium-priced, more economical options exist from brands like: Renogy EPEver MidNite Solar Victron SmartShunt 500A / 50mV - Bluetooth Battery Shunt Adding a battery monitor is crucial for system management. The Victron Smart Battery Monitor: Installs inline at the bus bar Connects to charge controller via Bluetooth Provides real-time system stats: Battery voltage Current draw State of charge Power consumption history From the bus bars, power flows to: Inverter (48V DC → 120V/240V AC) Transfer switches (grid vs backup power selection) Home electrical panel Individual circuits/appliances Always ensure proper fusing and wire gauge selection based on maximum current: 100A system → 2 AWG wire minimum Add appropriate fuses at each major connection Use proper crimping techniques for all terminals My complete system cost $7,109.07, but you can build a similar setup for under $5,000. The system is modular by design - I chose to build a larger 20KWH system with premium components, but you can start with a 10KWH system (using 4 batteries instead of 8) and skip the solar panel stands to save about $2,456 total: Reducing from 8 to 4 batteries saves $1,400 (4 × $350) Skipping solar panel stands saves $1,056 Each additional 2.5KWH of battery capacity costs around $350, making it easy to expand later. Let's break down the core components that typically account for 70-80% of your investment: Batteries form the heart of your solar system, representing the largest investment. In my setup, I allocated $2,960 (41.6%) for eight 12V 200AH LiFePo4 batteries with built-in Battery Management Systems (BMS). While budget options exist, battery quality directly impacts system reliability and longevity - making this an area where cutting costs can prove expensive in the long run. Goldenmate Batteries: 12V 200AH battery I went with Goldenmate batteries, which offer grade A LiFePo4 cells in excellent protective containers. You can get 15% off with my referral code. While I chose Goldenmate for their good value / price ratio, several other reputable manufacturers offer quality LiFePo4 batteries: Brand Price Range Notable Features Battle Born $$$$ • Made in USA• 10-year warranty• Excellent customer service SOK $$ • Active BMS• Good price/performance• Growing community support BigBattery $$$ • UL certified• Multiple form factors• Commercial grade options JITA $$ • Budget friendly• Basic but reliable• Popular for DIY builds The key is finding the right balance between cost, reliability, and support for your needs. While premium brands like Battle Born offer superior warranties and service, mid-range options can provide excellent value without compromising essential features. For solar panels, I took an unconventional but cost-effective approach. Rather than purchasing new panels, I invested $1,200 (16.9%) in used 245W-250W panels sourced locally. This decision offered compelling advantages: Benefits of Used Panels: Dramatic cost savings (50-75% below retail) Zero shipping expenses Immediate availability Environmental sustainability Considerations: Efficiency loss of 10-15% from age Possible micro-fractures from thermal cycling No manufacturer warranty For those with adequate installation space, used panels present an attractive value proposition. The slight reduction in efficiency can be offset by installing additional panels while maintaining significant cost savings. My system uses a 4000W 48V inverter, representing $380 (5.3%) of the total investment. While a smaller expense comparatively, inverter selection requires careful consideration of: Battery voltage compatibility Peak power requirements Output waveform quality Future expansion needs The remaining investment covers essential system elements: Solar panel mounting hardware ($1,056 - 14.9%) Smart charge controller ($600 - 8.4%) Automatic transfer switch ($180 - 2.5%) Battery monitoring system ($110 - 1.5%) Safety equipment and wiring (~8%) My complete 20KWH system includes: 48V 200AH Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries (8 x 12V 200AH in series) 24 x 245W-250W panels (3920W total) 16 x YL245P-29b 8 x Hyundai HiS-S250MG 48V, 4000W inverter with 8000W surge (pure sine wave 110V/120V) 4 circuit transfer switch (15A/120V per circuit) Powers refrigerator, entertainment system, 2 AC units, master outlets Planning 5th switch for home office Note on 240V: This system handles 120V only. For 240V needs, consider these split phase inverters: WZRELB 4000W 48V PowMr 5000W Solar Inverter POWLAND 5000W Solar Hybrid You can view the complete materials list here: Parameter YL245P-29b Hyundai HiS-S250MG Power Output (Pmax) 245 W 250 W Power Output Tolerances ±5% ±3% Module Efficiency 15.0% 15.37% Voltage at Pmax (Vmp) 29.6 V 30.6 V Current at Pmax (Imp) 8.28 A 8.17 A Open-circuit Voltage (Voc) 37.5 V 37.8 V Short-circuit Current (Isc) 8.83 A 8.72 A Parameter YL245P-29b Hyundai HiS-S250MG Dimensions (L / W / H) 64.96 in x 38.98 in x 1.57 in (1650 mm x 990 mm x 40 mm) 65.0 in x 39.0 in x 1.57 in (1650 mm x 990 mm x 40 mm) Weight 40.8 lbs (18.5 kg) 41.9 lbs (19.0 kg) Here are several key ways to save money while maintaining core functionality: I spent $1,055.88 on solar panel tilt mounts and stands, which are aluminum rails that the solar panels mount to. These help optimize solar charge and efficiency over the long run by making sure the panels face south and at the optimal angle. The prebuilt aluminum rails cost around $40 per stand per panel. You have several options to reduce this cost: Lay panels flat (simplest but takes ~15% efficiency hit) DIY tilting mounts using wood/metal Use cinderblocks for basic elevation If going the DIY route, make sure your build is robust against inclement weather. The general consensus is that optimizing your solar panel tilt results in a 15% efficiency gain on average, depending on your seasonal tilt needs. But if you're skilled with DIY construction, you could save over $1000 here while still getting most of the benefits. If you are limited on space, it could be easier to opt out of any solar stands, but it is an investment that pays dividends. Use this calculator to determine your optimal panel angle based on location: https://www.youtube.com/embed/mUpTRtO4eN0 In my setup, I split my inverter, charge controller, fuses, battery disconnect, and battery monitors into their own separate components. This ensures greater modularity so that I can easily replace components in the future for whatever reason. I also spent around $900 for all of this. While all-in-one solutions can save you $200-$300, they come with some additional requirements. You'll need to buy: Outlet boxes - Southwire MSB1G for organized management Circuit breakers - AC Miniature Circuit Breaker going to outlets for safety Outlets - Leviton T5320-WMP to deliver power Additionally, if one of these hybrid solar inverters stops working for any reason, you better hope you are still under warranty, or you'll have to shell out another $600-$700 for a system, which essentially makes its not worth the price anymore. You can also consider going up the supply chain for your batteries to save money. Although this may not be as cost effective anymore now in 2024 due to Lithium surplus in the market. In the past, pre-packaged LiFePo4 batteries with BMS (battery management systems) built-in would cost a premium compared to buying LiFePo4 batteries in bulk without the BMS or packaging. Doing your own LiFePo4 battery pack would involve buying individual 3V Lithium battery cells most likely from China via Alibaba, taping them together into larger sections in series and parallel. It honestly isn't terribly hard work, but given the decreasing $ / KW premium on the market, you can get a good pre-packaged LiFePo4 battery now for the same cost as the raw battery cells, and in my opinion, it isn't worth the hassle. https://www.youtube.com/embed/TjrtqBTlO6w?start=314 Another option that can be cheaper is buying used battery packs from electric vehicles. Many of these electric vehicles like Teslas have incredible battery packs that are around the 60KWH range +/- depending on the specific configuration. Many times, you can get a great deal on these used battery packs because it takes work to prepare them for home use. I will warn you that this option may not be as DIY friendly due to the larger battery pack and electronics, so I wouldn't recommend unless you are very knowledgeable and confident in your skills. However, if you are able to acquire one and have the technical know-how, you can easily divvy up the battery pack into separate cells, or just use the massive 60KWH system for your home. https://www.youtube.com/embed/tatCDbgmnxc Building a DIY solar backup system is a significant undertaking that requires careful planning, research, and investment. While my complete 20KWH system cost around $7,000, I've shown how you can build a robust 10KWH system for under $5,000 by: Starting with 4 batteries instead of 8 ($1,400 savings) Skipping or DIY-ing the solar panel stands ($1,000+ savings) Considering all-in-one inverter solutions ($200-300 savings) Remember that this system is not just about saving money - it's about energy independence and peace of mind during power outages. The modular approach I took may cost more upfront but offers key advantages: Easy expansion (each 2.5KWH battery addition costs ~$350) Component-level replacement instead of whole-system replacement Flexibility to upgrade individual parts as technology improves Better redundancy during component failures Whether you follow my exact build or opt for a more budget-friendly version, focus on these core principles: Always prioritize safety in your electrical design Size your system based on actual power needs Choose quality batteries - they're the foundation of reliability Consider future expansion in your initial setup Document your build for easier maintenance I encourage you to carefully consider your power needs, budget constraints, and technical comfort level when planning your build. Start small if needed - you can always expand the system later as your needs and expertise grow. The most important thing is to build a system that you understand and can maintain confidently. For those interested in learning more, I've provided detailed calculators and resources throughout this guide to help you: Calculate optimal solar panel positioning Determine your daily power requirements Size your battery bank appropriately Select compatible components Stay safe, and happy building!Posted 6 months ago
The Fisherman and the Businessman
This is a story that has resonated with many over the years, myself included. It invites us to reflect on our relationship with time, success, and contentment. In a world that often emphasizes constant growth and achievement, this tale reminds us of the value in appreciating the present moment and finding joy in life's simple pleasures. Importantly, the story doesn't suggest that ambition or progress is inherently negative. Rather, it encourages us to maintain perspective as we pursue our goals. It's about striking a balance – achieving and growing while not losing sight of what truly matters in life and not losing the forest for the trees. Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, and today is a gift––that is why it is called the present. A wealthy businessman was vacationing in a small coastal village. As he walked along the pier, he noticed a small fishing boat docking. Inside was a lone fisherman with several large fish. Impressed, the businessman asked, "How long did it take you to catch those?" "Not long," the fisherman replied with a smile. "Why don't you stay out longer and catch more?" the businessman inquired. The fisherman explained, "This is enough to support my family's needs." Curious, the businessman asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?" "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take naps with my wife, and in the evenings, I stroll into the village to drink wine and play music with my friends. I have a full and busy life," the fisherman answered contentedly. The businessman scoffed. "I have a business degree and could help you. You should fish for longer hours. With the extra money, you could buy a bigger boat. With the proceeds from the bigger boat, you could then buy several boats. Eventually, you would have a fleet of fishing boats." He continued enthusiastically, "Instead of selling your catch to a middleman, you would sell directly to the processor and later open your own cannery. You would control the product, processing, and distribution. You'd need to move from this village to the city, and eventually to a big financial center to run your expanding enterprise." The fisherman asked, "But how long will this all take?" "15-20 years," replied the businessman. "And then what?" the fisherman pressed. The businessman laughed. "That's the best part. When the time is right, you would sell your company and become very rich. You would make millions!" "Millions?" asked the fisherman. "Then what?" The businessman said, "Then you would retire. You could move to a small coastal village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take naps with your wife, and spend your evenings drinking wine and playing music with your friends." The fisherman smiled at the businessman and said, "Isn't that what I'm doing right now?"Posted 6 months ago
Periodic Melodies
Eric Weinstein and Terrence Howard recently appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, discussing various topics including the flower of life, platonic solids, and the academic peer review process. Open App https://www.youtube.com/embed/nrOaFxNex7U During the conversation, Eric shared a video from his friend, Stanley Jordan, who has mapped musical tones to the periodic table of elements. https://www.youtube.com/embed/GnMEOD4zZDc Inspired by this innovative approach, I created a web-based version of this concept. The idea is to assign musical frequencies to elements based on their ionization energies. Here's how it works: Normalization of Ionization Energy: $$ E_{norm} = \frac{E_i - E_{min}}{E_{max} - E_{min}} $$ Where $E_i$ is the ionization energy of an element, $E_{min}$ and $E_{max}$ are the minimum and maximum ionization energies. Frequency Mapping: $$ f = f_{low} + E_{norm} \cdot (f_{high} - f_{low}) $$ Where $f_{low}$ and $f_{high}$ are the lower and upper frequency bounds. Quantization: $$ semitones = round(12 \cdot \log_2(\frac{f}{440})) + chromatic + 12 \cdot octave $$ $$ f_{quantized} = 440 \cdot 2^{\frac{semitones}{12}} $$ In simple terms, quantization adjusts the calculated frequency to the nearest musical note. Assigning Musical Tones to Periodic Table: visualization from gavinmai.com If you're interested, you can explore the interactive version at gavinmai.com/periodic-melodies. I welcome any feedback or suggestions for future features. Please use the feedback form on the website to share your thoughts.Posted 7 months ago
advice for young adults
Many years ago when I was in my teens, I faced excruciating anxiety about the future. Not knowing who I was, what to do, what the purpose of life was. Now that I am older, I still face anxiety at times, but have realized that this is natural and human. The important thing is to not let fear dictate your actions and move forward in spite of your fears. At the time, I crossed paths with Andres Amador((https://bio.site/andresamadorarts)) via email and he gave some excellent advice that I wanted to re-share in the hopes that it helps you, dear friend. Question: What do I do with my life? The short answer is that you need to be true to yourself. The problem, especially for someone so young, is that the figuring out of who we are is a lifelong journey. Honestly, its only been recently, in the past 5 years or less perhaps, that I have able to stand in the solidity of who I feel myself to be (and I'm 42!). I feel that when someone leaves high school they should have to leave the country for a year minimum of service/exploration. We can't know who we are when we only have our own context to gauge ourselves from. Experiences are crucial to learning who we are, to learning our preferences and our tendencies, our inclinations, our traps. We place such a burden on our youth to figure out their lives when they have not yet truly lived. It leads to a stress in the moment and at worst to a defining and narrowing of ourselves that can have lifelong impact- at its most limiting when we define our options based on perceived financial reward and go in a direction that is truly unsatisfying. The positive is that we are always in control of who we express ourselves as- never forget that. It allows one to have a more relaxed approach to seemingly heavy decisions- there is always the potential to shift course (although it could be easier to shift earlier than later...). I am expecting my first child in about 2 months. So I might look at this question as one directed towards that person in your position. How would I advise my own child, someone I have an intimately connected desire to 'succeed' (by which I mean 'find a path of sustainable happiness'), someone for whom I cannot have a dispassionate, quixotic response? I think I would be starting much earlier in life to inculcate the awareness of their internal pullings, to recognize and appreciate the movement of their heart. From that place, were they to choose to go directly to college, or to an apprenticeship, or to travel, or to work, I would trust that they were acting according to the internal guidance system that is uniquely theirs and that will always move them towards greater expansion of their being. It is an abstract concept, but here is my actual answer to all questions that arise in our lives: 'what has my light shining brighter?' Whether its about where to live or what to eat or who to associate with or what work to do, this question is appropriate as a gauge to the aspect of our experience that has a far deeper impact on us than any other (such as financial, rationality, etc). Here's a way to engage the question- when contemplating the options, which one has your body feeling most easeful, which has your heart running more quickly, which has you feeling scared in a nervous excited way? In contrast, which has you feeling tense, sapped of energy, or anxious? Life is not 'supposed' to 'look' any particular 'way'. Each of us is on our own journey of realizing our own unique potential. There is no roadmap for any of us, and that is the scary part- stepping off the trail and into the wilderness to chart our own path. There is no guarantee. Of course, there is no guarantee in life for anything at all. Doing something for the security it offers is perhaps the worst mistake we can make for not only are we giving up our more expanded potential, but we may not arrive at what we are aiming for, which makes the effort even less worthwhile. This is not to say that efforting towards something is not worthwhile- but that efforting without that internal motivation is not worthwhile. Only you can feel this, only you can understand this (even when you can't actually, understand it). You can't look to others for the cues to what it should be and thats where it can be hard at your age with parental and later societal pressures to 'be something'. Follow your heart the best you can from wherever you find yourself. Life is a continuous unfolding, with our understanding of ourself in constant evolution, which will have you coming to different conclusions at different times in the journey. The only constant is the question I posed- 'what has your light shining brightest?' Follow that and no matter what, you will feel happiest about the journey, even as 'mistakes' are made (which is a necessary part of living). And remember- it is never too late to redefine ourselves and to shift course. I wish you well on your journey, its an amazing and exciting one even as its scary. Blessings ~AndresPosted 7 months ago
Money: The Hidden Backbone of Civilization
Money seems simple: coins, bills, numbers in a bank account. But this simplicity is deceptive. Money is an invention as profound as language. It enables strangers to cooperate at scale. Without it, we'd be limited to small tribes and barter. With it, we've built global civilizations. But money isn't static. It evolves. From cowrie shells to cryptocurrencies, its forms reflect and shape societies. Today, we primarily use fiat currencies - money backed by government decree. This system, however, has deep-seated issues. Fiat is prone to manipulation, inflation, and instability. Central banks can print at will, diluting value. Governments impose controls, restricting freedom. In the US, the dollar has lost over 96% of its purchasing power since 1913((https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2024?endYear=1913&amount=1)). In extreme cases, like Venezuela, hyperinflation has wiped out savings overnight((https://theconversation.com/what-caused-hyperinflation-in-venezuela-a-rare-blend-of-public-ineptitude-and-private-enterprise-102483)). These aren't bugs; they're features of state-controlled money. The solution isn't tweaking the system. It's reimagining it. We need alternatives to fiat. Currencies free from state control, subject to market forces. Uncensorable and internet-native. This isn't just an economic argument - it's about the future of human cooperation. To understand where money is going, we need to understand where it's been. It's the story of how we've organized society for thousands of years - and how we might reshape it. Let's trace that story. Rough timeline of the evolution of money Money wasn't invented. It was discovered, like fire or the wheel. Early humans didn't wake up one day and decide to create a complex financial system. They were just trying to solve a simple problem: how do I trade my extra fish for some berries when the berry guy doesn't want fish? This is the "double coincidence of wants" problem. It's a mouthful but it just means that barter is really inefficient. Imagine if you had to find someone who wanted exactly what you were selling, and as selling exactly what you wanted, every time you needed to buy something. You'd spend all day trading and no time actually doing anything useful. So people started using intermediate goods. Shells((https://nmaahc.si.edu/cowrie-shells-and-trade-power)), salt((https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0278416521000106)), grain((https://www.atlantafed.org/about/tours/story-of-money/03-value-in-use-exchange/grains-as-money)) - anything that was relatively scarce and widely accepted. This was the birth of commodity money and it changed everything. Suddenly you could trade with anyone, anytime. Civilization exploded. Commodity money in the form of grain Form of Money Pros Cons Seashells Lightweight and durable Limited to coastal areas, potential for duplication with similar shells Salt Essential for diet and food preservation Bulky and susceptible to environmental degradation (e.g., humidity) Grain Fundamental for sustenance, storable Susceptible to spoilage and requires significant space for storage Metal Universally valued, highly durable Heavy and costly to mine and refine But shells were too common, salt was hard to store and grain spoiled. You'd want something that doesn't rot, is easy to carry, and isn't as common as dirt. Metals fit the bill perfectly. Gold and silver were the superstars of metal money. They were rare, pretty, and hard to fake. But here's the weird part, they weren't actually useful for much. Early humans couldn't eat gold or build houses with it. Yet it became incredibly valuable. Metal coins were a huge leap forward. But they had problems too. Try carrying enough gold to buy a house. This issue came to a head in 11th century China. The Song Dynasty was booming, but they were running out of copper for coins. Their solution? Paper money. They called it "Jiaozi" (交子). Coinage during Song Dynasty((By Jean-Michel Moullec from Vern sur Seiche (35, Bretagne), France - S593_SongSud_XiaoZong_Chunxi_H17304_1ar85, CC BY 2.0)) Jiaozi Paper Money((https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/05/18/the-first-chinese-paper-money-jiaozi-was-stamped-with-six-different-inks-and-multiple-banknote-seals/)) Jiaozi became the defacto way to finance everything, from war (shocker, I know) against the Jin Dynasty((https://www.cambriainstitute.com/journals/advb19v1n1y2010f55.pdf)), general commerce, and savings. This shift from metal to paper wasn't just a change in material. It was a change in thinking. Money was becoming more abstract. More about trust and less about inherent value. Even though Jiaozi were redeemable for the underlying copper, most people did not redeem them because it was more convenient to use the paper money for transactions. Over time, due to budget deficits, greed and war, the Song Dynasty debased their paper money, resulting in only 20% of all Jiaozi being backed by copper((http://chinaknowledge.de/History/Terms/jiaozi.html)). This contributed to financial instability and eventually the fall of the Song Dynasty. Inflation is like making everyone's pizza slice smaller. You still have a slice, but it fills you up less. In the 17th century, European countries like Sweden and England caught on to the paper money idea. By the 19th and early 20th centuries, much of the world's wealth was stored as paper money, backed by gold and silver. This worked for a while. But then came the Great Depression in the 1930s. Suddenly everyone wanted their gold back. It was like a massive bank run, but for an entire country, and subsequently, the world. The gold standard limited monetary policy flexibility. In 1933, FDR, in a move that would make any libertarian's head explode, banned private gold ownership and confiscated gold in order to increase the money supply. Executive Order 61026 After World War II, the world decided to play a new game called Bretton Woods. The rules were simple: the U.S. dollar is as good as gold, and you can trade your dollars for gold anytime. The exchange rate? $35 per ounce. It was like a global pawn shop, with America as the pawnbroker. Gold standard redemption rate was $35 / 1oz 24K gold This agreement marked the beginning of the transition away from the gold standard, as it limited gold redemption to foreign governments and central banks, eventually leading to the complete weaning off the gold standard in 1971. Just like the Song Dynasty, the U.S. started spending like a sailor on shore leave. Vietnam War, Great Society programs - the dollar printing presses were working overtime. By 1966, foreign banks held more dollars than the U.S. had gold. It was like writing checks your gold vault couldn't cash. "In 1966, foreign central banks and governments held over 14 billion U.S. dollars. The United States had $13.2 billion in gold reserves, but only $3.2 billion of that was available to cover foreign dollar holdings. The rest was needed to cover domestic holdings" ((https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/center/mm/eng/sc_sub_3.htm)) Diminishing gold reserves pre Nixon Shock((Jared Schneidman Illustrations)) In 1971, Nixon looked at the numbers and basically said, "We're out of gold, folks. But don't worry, the dollar is still good. Trust us." And just like that, the last link between money and anything tangible was severed. "Fiat money (noun) /ˈfiːæt ˈmʌni/: money that a government has declared to be legal tender, although it has no intrinsic value and is not backed by reserves" ~Oxford Dictionary https://www.youtube.com/embed/rcnhF09QN78?start=6 So how well has fiat money worked since 1971? Let's look at the data. Dramatic Rise in Cumulative Inflation in the U.S. Since 1971((https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/cummulative-inflation.jpg)) Cumulative Inflation since 1872((https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/12/inflation-cpi-since-1872)) U.S. Consumer Price Index Surge Post-1971 Highlighted((https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/img_0681_arrow-1.jpg)) Exponential Growth of U.S. National Debt Post-1971((https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/eifme9yu0ae8xnz.jpg)) Timeline of Hyperinflation Globally, with Intensified Episodes After 1971((https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/do5g42luuae65cp_1.jpg)) Fiat money has fundamentally altered our economic landscape. Since 1971, we've seen persistent inflation with fewer deflationary periods. This shift wasn't arbitrary - it was impossible under the gold standard, which tethered the money supply to a finite resource. Inflation isn't inherently problematic. It's a tool, like any other in economics. Excessive inflation erodes purchasing power and can spiral into hyperinflation. Conversely, deflation can trigger a contraction in spending, potentially leading to economic stagnation. The Great Depression illustrates this danger. As prices fell, consumers delayed purchases, expecting further price drops. This created a feedback loop of reduced spending and falling prices, exacerbating the economic downturn. Great Depression Unemployment and Deflation of CPI - Federal Reserve Bank SF((https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2009/03/risk-deflation/)) Recovery came through expansionary monetary policy - lower interest rates and an increased money supply. This approach demonstrates both the power and the responsibility that comes with fiat currency. The key is balance. Fiat money gives central banks more control, but it also demands more nuanced management. The challenge lies in maintaining stable prices and economic growth without succumbing to the temptations of excessive money creation. Aspect Pros Cons Economic Stability Provides long-term price stability Limits government response to economic crises Inflation Control Reduces risk of hyperinflation due to fixed money supply Can cause deflation if gold supply doesn't match economic growth Credibility Enhances confidence in currency with tangible backing Limited flexibility in monetary policy, making it hard to address short-term fluctuations Aspect Pros Cons Economic Flexibility Enables control of money supply for stability and growth Can cause inflation if not managed properly Monetary Policy Allows dynamic policies like interest rate adjustments and quantitative easing Can mask underlying economic issues, delaying necessary reforms Cost-Efficiency Cheaper to produce and maintain than commodity-based money Excessive printing can devalue currency, leading to crises The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: maximize employment maintain price stability This seemingly simple directive belies the complex economic balancing act it requires. Sweet spot for inflation x unemployment according to Federal Bank of Chicago((https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2016/10-11-2016-conducting-monetary-policy-in-an-evolving-environment-sydney)) To achieve these goals, the Fed employs four primary tools: Open Market Operations (OMO) Discount Rate adjustments Reserve Requirements Quantitative Easing (QE) These tools allow the Fed to influence the money supply and interest rates, thereby affecting economic conditions. The most frequently used tool, OMO, involves buying or selling government securities to expand or contract the money supply. Federal Reserve Expansionary Open Market Operation((Theory and Applications of Economics, https://2012books.lardbucket.org/pdfs/theory-and-applications-of-economics.pdf)) When the Federal Reserve conducts an expansionary open-market operation, it purchases bonds (a) or, equivalently, supplies more credit (b). The price of bonds increases, or, equivalently, the interest rate decreases((https://2012books.lardbucket.org/pdfs/theory-and-applications-of-economics.pdf)) The Quantity Theory of Money underpins much of the Fed's strategy. It posits that money supply should grow in tandem with GDP to maintain price stability. This theory explains why the Fed often increases money supply during periods of economic growth. Assuming the economy (T) grows faster than money velocity (V) growth, for prices to remain stable (P), money supply (M) must grow according to the quantity theory of money However, the Fed's actions have broader implications beyond their intended effects. While unemployment has remained relatively stable over recent decades, income inequality has risen sharply. This disparity is partly due to the uneven effects of inflation and monetary policy on different economic strata. Unemployment Rate Over Time The wealthy, with their ability to invest in inflation-resistant assets like businesses and equities, have seen their wealth grow disproportionately. Meanwhile, those relying primarily on wages have struggled to keep pace with inflation. This phenomenon, known as the Cantillon Effect((https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-cantillion-effect)), highlights a critical issue in our current monetary system. Those closest to the source of money creation - banks, large corporations, and wealthy individuals - benefit from a brief arbitrage window before increased money supply is reflected in prices. Data from 2016 Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances((https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm)), visualized by ((https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-assets-make-wealth/)) The result is a growing wealth gap that began accelerating after the shift to fiat currency in 1971. This trend raises important questions about the long-term sustainability and fairness of our current monetary policy approach. In essence, while the Federal Reserve's tools are effective for managing short-term economic fluctuations, they may be contributing to long-term structural inequalities. This paradox represents one of the most significant challenges in modern economic policy. Wages Stagnation Since 1971 Price Inflation of Campbell's Soup $1 in 1971 is worth $7.75((https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1971?amount=1)) as of June 2024. Since Covid-19, the US has almost doubled the entire money supply in just a period of a couple years. The downstream effects of this are yet to be fully realized, but expect prices to continue to rise and confidence in the US Dollar to wane. This is already evident in many global superpowers like China, Russia((https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp)) and the UAE to start divesting its interest in holding US Dollar instruments or using it as a medium of exchange((https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-petrodollar-is-dead-and-thats-a-big-deal-202406141938)). Once the trust is lost, it is very difficult to regain. And in a world of fiat money, where the fundamental value of currencies are subject to a floating exchange rate, loss of trust can be a slippery slope. The shift to fiat currency created a vacuum in intrinsic value that the US filled ingeniously with the petrodollar system. By agreeing with Saudi Arabia to price oil in dollars, the US effectively created global demand for its currency. This move transformed oil demand into dollar demand, securing the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. Oil market is bigger than all raw metals combined (Infomine, EIA, World Gold Council, Johnson Matthey, Cameco, Benchmark Minerals), visualized by Visual Capitalist((https://visualcapitalist.com)) Since oil began trading exclusively in dollars, the U.S. has enjoyed exorbitant privilege. But this privilege has had unexpected consequences. Consider manufacturing. We often attribute the shift of production to Asia to "globalization." But that's only part of the story. The strong dollar, a direct result of the Petrodollar system, has made U.S. labor expensive relative to other countries. This isn't just about t-shirts and toys. Even high-tech industries like semiconductor manufacturing have largely moved offshore. We've outsourced not just production, but expertise. It's easy to see this as a natural evolution of global trade. But imagine a world where the Chinese Renminbi was stronger than the dollar. We might see Chinese companies outsourcing to cheaper American labor. The current arrangement isn't inevitable; it's a direct result of our monetary system. This is the Cantillon effect writ large. The benefits of new money creation aren't distributed evenly. They concentrate around the source - in this case, the U.S. financial system. But the long-term effects ripple out in ways we're only beginning to understand. The irony is that this "strength" may be weakening us. By hollowing out our manufacturing base and concentrating on financial services, we've become more vulnerable. We're rich on paper, but increasingly dependent on other nations for essential goods and skills. Those closest to the creation of US Dollars have benefitted the most "The dominance of the US dollar can be measured by the percentage of central bank reserves in dollars, which is 62%, and the by the percentage of transactions in Forex markets, which is 85%. That means that of all Forex transactions, 85% of the trades involve US dollars combined with another currency." ~Seeking Alpha((https://seekingalpha.com/article/4223468-decline-and-fall-of-petrodollar)) The latest data from the IMF shows the global foreign exchange currency reserve. Generally, the US Dollar is performing strongly but more and more currencies are being stored in foreign central banks, signaling a desire to diversify exposure against just the US Dollar. Global foreign exchange currency reserve visualization from gavinmai.com((https://gavinmai.com/currency-dominance?ref=evolution-of-money-blog)) Despite the increasing diversification of global reserves, the US Dollar is expected to remain the most liquid and sought-after global reserve currency. It will continue to be used for pricing crude oil in the near term, as most other currencies have more localized demand. For example, Russia may price crude oil in Rupees for India, but then faces the challenge of reinvesting those Rupees outside of India((https://www.politico.eu/article/india-has-russia-kremlin-over-crude-oil-barrel/)). The US dollar's dominance isn't eternal. While it remains the most liquid global currency, cracks are appearing. Countries are diversifying their reserves, and the petrodollar system faces an existential threat from renewable energy. If nuclear fusion((https://www.helionenergy.com/)) becomes internationally viable, it could topple the oil market and, by extension, the dollar's supremacy. But there's a deeper issue at play: the monopoly on money itself. Money is perhaps the most important product in the world. It's the foundation of every economy, the lifeblood of commerce. Yet it's also the only product with a government-enforced monopoly. Imagine if the government decided who made your shoes, or your smartphone. We'd consider that absurd. But when it comes to money, we accept it without question. The Federal Reserve, our money manufacturer, operates in a closed loop. Its governors serve 14-year terms, insulated from public opinion. Regional bank presidents serve 5-year terms. This system, designed for stability, also resists change and innovation. In any other industry, a subpar product faces competition. If your shoes are uncomfortable, you buy a different brand. If your phone is slow, you switch to a competitor. This competition drives innovation and improvement. But with money, we're stuck with what we're given. The usual argument for this monopoly is that money is too important to leave to the market. But isn't that backwards? Shouldn't the most important things be the ones we most need to get right? Historically, governments monopolized money because they alone could enforce its use and protect its value. But technology is changing this equation. The internet has created a global, digital economy. Fintech companies like Stripe and neobanks like Revolut are reimagining financial services. Cryptocurrencies are challenging the very concept of state-issued money. Yet despite these advances, our financial system still struggles with forex issues, remittance fees, and time lags. It's as if we're running a 21st-century economy on 20th-century infrastructure. We take it for granted that money is issued by governments. But this arrangement isn't inevitable. It's a product of history, not necessity. Consider the separation of church and state. Once, the idea seemed impossible. Today, it's the norm in most developed countries. We may be approaching a similar inflection point with money. The reasons for separating money and state parallel those for separating church and state: Freedom of choice Reduction of conflict Focus on core responsibilities With money, this could mean freedom to choose your currency, fewer currency wars, and governments focused on governance rather than monetary policy. This shift would require a truly digital economy supporting multiple currencies. Paradoxically, this diversity might lead to a new global standard - not imposed by fiat, but chosen by consensus. In the short term, the U.S. dollar will likely remain dominant. But as money and state separate, we'll see experimentation with new monetary policies. Private actors may build on the dollar's digital infrastructure, much as the dollar was once built on gold. Blockchain technology isn't just another fintech innovation. It's a fundamental reimagining of what money can be. For the first time in history, we have a form of money that solves two critical problems without central control: Provable scarcity Prevention of double-spending These might sound like technical details, but they're the core issues that have always required trusted third parties in our financial systems. Traditional databases, even with ACID compliance, can't solve these problems without centralized control. Blockchain does. It creates a global, immutable ledger through consensus algorithms like proof-of-work or proof-of-stake. This isn't just theory. It's happening now. People are downloading wallet software, buying cryptocurrencies, even adding them to national treasuries((https://bitcoin.gob.sv/)). We're watching the birth of a global, digital-native monetary system. El Salvador's National Bitcoin Treasury via bitcoin.gob.sv Adoption will likely follow a familiar pattern: it starts with enthusiasts, then speculators, then mainstream users as the infrastructure improves. We saw this with the internet, and we're seeing it now with crypto. The implications are profound. Cryptocurrencies could become full substitutes for bank accounts and cash. They remove the need for trusted intermediaries in transactions. This eliminates chargeback fraud for merchants but also means users must be extra cautious with security. New solutions are emerging, like multi-signature wallets that require multiple approvals for transactions. These developments are making crypto more user-friendly and secure. For merchants, the appeal is clear: no more interchange fees that eat 1.5% - 2.5% of every card transaction. In a world of thin margins, this is significant. The crypto ecosystem is diverse: Bitcoin: "Digital gold" with fixed supply and immutable monetary policy. Stablecoins (e.g., USDC): Pegged to fiat, bridging traditional and crypto finance. Ethereum: Powers smart contracts and dApps, with a flexible monetary policy. CBDCs: Central banks' digital currencies, not true crypto but a response to it. Governance Tokens: Enable community decision-making in crypto projects. This diversity isn't just about new money forms. It's the first technological foundation for separating money and state. Like the separation of church and state enabled religious innovation, this could spark monetary innovation. Blockchain provides a public infrastructure for creating and experimenting with money, free from centralized control. It's not about which coin will dominate next month, but which monetary systems best serve human needs over time. The beauty is in the optionality. We don't need to decide now. The market can experiment and evolve. This might take years or centuries, but as long as this infrastructure exists, we can create better money. This doesn't mean all cryptocurrencies are equal or problem-free. Scams, manipulation, and volatility are real issues. Regulation will play a role. But the core innovation - a global, permissionless value transfer system - is here to stay. It's the foundation for a more open, efficient, and inclusive financial system. Elon Musk has famously said: "The thing we call money is just an information system for labor allocation" ~Elon Musk((https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1349977642708168704)) It's a provocative idea, but what happens when labor itself becomes obsolete? As we edge closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI), we're forced to confront this question. If AI can perform most economically valuable tasks, what becomes of our economic systems? Price changes in consumer goods and services in the United States((https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/price-changes-consumer-goods-services-united-states)) Look at price trends over the past few decades. Goods with decreasing human involvement - computers, TVs - have become cheaper. Services still reliant on human labor - education, healthcare, housing - have grown more expensive. It's tempting to extrapolate this trend and imagine a world where AI has made everything dirt cheap. But let's pump the brakes. We've been predicting the imminent arrival of AGI for decades. It's always just around the corner, yet somehow never quite here. Self-driving cars, for instance, have been "almost ready" for years. The challenges of generalizing AI beyond narrow tasks are significant and often underestimated. Even if we achieve AGI, the transition won't be instant or smooth. Some fields will resist automation longer than others. And new, unforeseen types of labor may emerge. That said, let's indulge in some speculation. Imagine a far future where AI and robotics have indeed automated most current forms of labor. Energy is cheap and abundant. Manufacturing is handled by self-replicating machines. What role does money play in such a world? https://www.youtube.com/embed/cpraXaw7dyc One possibility is that it becomes largely obsolete. In a world of true abundance, where anything can be produced at negligible cost, traditional economic constructs might break down. We might indeed return to something like a barter system, not out of necessity but as a way to exchange goods and services that have personal or social value rather than economic value. But here's the rub: scarcity might not disappear; it might just shift. Even in a world of material abundance, there could be scarcity of attention, of unique experiences, of social status. Money, or something like it, might evolve to mediate these new forms of scarcity. Moreover, the transition to this hypothetical post-scarcity world would likely be long and uneven. Money would continue to play a crucial role during this period, even as its nature and function evolve. The truth is, we don't know what a post-AGI economy looks like. Our current economic models simply aren't built to handle a world without scarcity. It's like asking a fish to imagine life on land((This topic deserves a longer discussion, one that is beyond the scope of this essay)). What we can say is this: money, like all human tools, evolves to meet the needs of the society that uses it. As our world changes, so too will our systems of value exchange. The form this takes may be as foreign to us as cryptocurrency would be to a medieval merchant. The only certainty is change itself. Our task is not to predict the future, but to build systems flexible enough to adapt to whatever comes. In the realm of money and economics, that means fostering innovation while maintaining stability - a balancing act that will only become more crucial as we venture into uncharted technological territory. Thank you to Kent Makishima, Kyle Armour, Miles Albert, Sam Trautwein, York Yu for reading drafts and feedback.